Abstract：Ordovician fractured reservoir in Lunnan area is characterized by big depth，mufti-period tectonic movement，many influence factors，very complicated late reforming and so nn. Integrative mathematical model for fracture area prediction is constructed to cope with above characteristics. Authors determine fracturing periods and their relation，analyse influence factors for fracturing，develop both computation method for fracture probabilities in different lithologies and fracture prediction model，overall analyse all influence factors to obtain parameters for stress field numerical modeling，compute the probabilities of fracture developments in four perinds，and predict the distributions of fractures and effective fractures in each fracturfing period，by making mathematical-physical statistics，stress-field numerical modeling，rock mechanics research and combinative analysis of tectonic，sedimentary and drilling data. Computation result coincides with real hydrocarbon test.
